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Every year, it seems as though there are a few toys that everyone just goes crazy for. And, once these toys are identified, they fly off the shelves. They are hard to find — and may even sell out. And, if you do find them for sale, you might have to pay a huge price for the ability to make your child smile on Christmas morning.

Spotting which items are likely to be hot can be a little difficult, and what ends up causing a real furor can be hard to pinpoint. However, there are some indications that a toy might become suddenly hot:

• Someone famous mentions them: Has someone famous mentioned the toy? Or has a celebrity’s child been seen with something similar? Back in the day, if Oprah mentioned something on her show, it became an instant classic.
• Described as “must have”: Another clue is whether or not something is described as a “must have” for the holidays. Even if the item might be relatively obscure to start, the moment a popular magazine mentions it in a guide, it can suddenly become crazy.
• Tie-ins: Look for tie-ins from entertainment. Movie-related items, as well as items tied to popular shoes and trends, are likely to be hot during the holiday season.
• Lets the child mimic adults: Toys that look like what adults have can also get quite popular. That usually means technology. Kids love to feel as though they have a cool tech gadget, and those items can see sudden demand.

Sometimes, though, a toy just explodes, and there is no discernable reason behind it. However, by watching trends, and observing layaway ^[3] behaviors, many retailers can identify toys that will likely be hot — and in short supply by the time December gets here.

Hot Toy Predictions for Christmas 2012

For this holiday season, if you don’t want to be left out in the cold, you might want to try layaway to reserve a hot item. Many of the hot toys on the market cost more than $50, and some cost even more. Either get ready for Christmas early ^[4] and buy the less expensive toys now, or put the more expensive on layaway and pay over the next few weeks. Or you could find yourself paying out the nose for one of these 5 toys:

1. LeapPad2: This personal gaming console claims to focus on learning, but that doesn’t stop it from being popular. It comes with front and back cameras, as well as different apps. You’ll pay about $99 for this toy.
2. Furby: Furbies are back, and this time you can use an Apple app to help your child translate the Furbish language. These toys were popular before, and they’ve been re-packaged to be popular again. Price: $59.
3. Razor Pocket Mod Electric Scooter: If you don’t mind spending $240 on your child’s Christmas gift, this scooter is likely to be a big hit. A small scooter that kids can enjoy, since they get up to 15 miles per hour. Personally, I like the idea of kids riding bikes. But that’s not the way of things now. Who needs bikes when you can have an electric scooter?
4. Monster High Dolls: Monster High is a popular kids show and movie, and the branded dolls that go with the entertainment are expected to be favorites this Christmas. You can get Monster High dolls, sets, and accessories for between $12.99 and $49.99.
5. Nerf Elite Hail-Fire Blaster: Send darts flying up to 75 feet. This blaster gun from ever-popular Nerf, can hold up to 144 darts in its four rotating clips (but the gun only comes with 24 darts). Cost: $39.99.

What do you think will be hot this year? What toys are planning to get for your kids?