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Review: Super Boom by Jeffrey Hirsch

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Super BoomI don’t normally review too many investment related books, unless I have a personal interest or I feel they have value to everyone, but I couldn’t pass up a book called “Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It.

Last October, Jeffrey Hirsch predicted, in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, that the Dow would increase to 38,820 by the year 2025. The 38,820 number sounds absurd, doesn’t it? Based on the 2010 close of 11,577.51, reaching 38,820 is “only” an 8.4% annual growth rate over 15 years. Most would call it a rosy prediction… so it’s not nearly as outlandish as it probably first appeared.

Who is Jeffrey Hirsch? Hirsch is the Editor in Chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and a frequent contributor to media organizations like CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, and others. he’s the son of Yale Hirsch, who predicted a 15-year “super boom” back in 1976 that turned out to be true as the market soared up until the dot com bust in 2000.

Hirsch appears to be tapping into the knowledge and experience of his father in trying to predict where the Dow goes from here. The book offers up lots of data (historical, technical, you name it) to back up his prediction and lend credibility to his declaration.

So while it’s not that crazy, predictions like this aren’t really that useful. If you’re right, everyone thinks you’re lucky. If you’re wrong, well, just look at James Glassman and Kevin Hassett. Back in 1999, they called for a Dow 36,000.

I guess we’ll see in 2025. :)

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9 Responses to “Review: Super Boom by Jeffrey Hirsch”

  1. zapeta says:

    I guess we will find out if they’re right, but I do know that there will probably be a lot of up and down between now and then. I’m just going to keep investing and hope for the best.

    • skylog says:

      agreed. i do not doubt that it can get there, but i do not see a way that it will be a smooth steady ride. just look back at the past 14 years and look at everything that has happened. it will probably only be worse going forward.

  2. Shirley says:

    And in 2025 we will look back to 2011 and say either, “Boy, that was off target!” or “Good calculation, good thinking!” Until then, I agree with zapeta’s thoughts. ;-)

  3. Anthony says:

    The “Dow 36,000″ link seems to be broken.

  4. I can sum up the how to profit part in one sentence:

    Buy an index fund that owns the Dow stocks.

    There, I saved everyone the trouble of reading the book. :)

  5. govenar says:

    His prediction seems to be partly based on peacetime after a major war; I’m not sure that the current military activity really counts as a “major war”.

  6. Benjamin says:

    It’s not in the prediction but in the data and this book has a lot. The predictions are based on historical data analysis that combines current sensibilities. That’s good news and was a great read.

    Besides, the broken link is the publishers fault, not the writer.

    Regards


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