There isn’t a single reason why you shouldn’t like index funds. They’re cheap, they offer market rates of return without fail, and they are simple to buy. They beat actively managed mutual funds a majority of the time and they are often advocated as the best investment the average Joe can put their money in. So why not put all your money into an S&P 500 Index fund like the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index or the Vanguard 500 Index, call it a day and enjoy more time with the family? Because that would be a huge mistake.

The reality is that you can’t just open an account a online discount broker, buy only index funds or index ETFs, and then call it a day. The advice of personal finance experts isn’t that you should invest only in a single index fund, it’s to invest in a basket of index funds that diversifies your risk and offers you a fair return for the risk you are taking. An index fund represents only a small part of your diversified portfolio, it shouldn’t represent the entire portfolio because it exposes you to risk without paying you adequately for it.

Risk #1. Domestic Risk

If you have everything in an S&P 500 fund, then your portfolio depends on the performance of the United States economy. As anyone who has seen their brokerage statement lately, the stock market has declined significantly since last October and the economy has been slowing down since at least six months to a year beforehand. If 100% of your investment portfolio is in domestic investments, you’re over exposed to one single country. While it’s the best country in the world, it’s still risky to put all your eggs in this basket. Some of the greatest investment gains the last few years, helped on by the decline in the value of the dollar, has come in the emerging markets funds. While I wouldn’t advise plowing all your money there (especially now that the dollar is recovering), experts recommend around 5-10% of your assets in emerging markets funds.

Risk #2. Equity Risk

An S&P 500 index fund is 100% stocks (duh), which is probably at least double digit percentage points higher than what you probably want your stock allocation to be. As I mentioned earlier, the stock market had a 20% haircut from its highs last fall and if you held just an equity index fund like the S&P 500, you took on the full brunt of that fall. Experts advocate the 120 minus age rule when it comes to stock allocation: your stock allocation should be [120 - your age] percent of your portfolio, with the rest being in bonds. While the equation is subject to tweaking based on your situation and risk tolerance, the idea behind it is that you shouldn’t be too exposed to equities because they’re riskier than bonds.

Solutions

Are you convinced yet that 100% into an index fund is a mistake? I couldn’t just leave you with an explanation of what not to do without giving you a solution! There are two solutions for those who like to “set it and forget it:”

Solution #1. Target Retirement or Lifecycle Funds

Target Retirement or Lifecycle funds (Vanguard calls them Target Retirement, Fidelity calls them Lifecycle) are funds that adjust their asset allocation as the years pass. The idea is that you buy a 2045 Fund if you intend to retirement in 2045 and the broker adjusts the asset allocation such that the risk gets lower and lower as that date nears. Target retirement and lifecycle funds are composed of other mutual funds, many of which are passively managed. These funds are truly for the “set it and forget it” types because the broker rebalances the fund for the investors based on their models (and each broker’s model is different, I once wrote about how these target retirement funds compared with the 120 stock rule).

Taking a look at Vanguard’s 2045 fund, you’ll see that the asset allocation is composed of six funds in varying allocations:

• Vanguard Total Stk Market Idx Fd Inc - 70.22%
• Vanguard European Stock Index - 10.10%
• Vanguard Total Bond Market Index - 10.00%
• Vanguard Pacific Stk Idx Fd Inc - 4.38%
• Vanguard Emerg Markets Stk Idx Fd - 3.81%
• Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF - 1.46%

Solution #2. Lazy Portfolios

Lazy Portfolios are cleverly named portfolios that are designed specifically for the lazy “set it and forget it” crowd, which includes yours truly. They are simply asset allocation recommendations that rely on a basket of low cost mutual funds, which include index funds, to build a portfolio that is easy to manage. The most well known of these portfolios is the Couch Potato Portfolio, created by Dallas Morning News columnist Scott Burns, and it’s a 50-50 split of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund and the Vanguard Total Bond Fund Index Fund. Other cleverly named titles includes the Margaritaville Portfolio, the Coffeehouse Portfolio, and others.

The lazy portfolios aren’t entirely “set it and forget it” because they don’t rebalance themselves every year. Think of the portfolios as a recommended asset allocation, you still have to go in every year and rebalance them back to their recommended percentages.

(Photo: DustinMatthews)

One of Peter Lynch’s most famed principles of investing is “Invest in what you know.”

I humbly disagree.

You Don’t Actually Know

The only problem with that bit of advice is that, as human beings, we tend to have too high an opinion of our own intelligence and abilities. In other words, you think you “know” but you probably don’t actually know as much as you think you do, or as well as you think you do.

I was studying computer science at Carnegie Mellon University during the tech boom of the late nineties and (very) early 2000s. I saw all these technology companies offering great services and saw that there was a very bright future in technology. I saw that the future of commerce was online so I believed that companies like Amazon.com and Buy.com and Overstock.com would be the future powerhouses (none have reached they tech bubble peaks, but all are doing relatively well… though Overstock’s CEO keeps complaining about the shorts). The only problem is that while I knew basic computer science theories, I didn’t actually know much about technology companies and the business world. I thought I knew, but I didn’t.

Too Many Eggs In One Basket

Another reason this bit of advice is dangerous is because it depends localized knowledge and, more specifically, often knowledge of an industry you’re working in. That’s dangerous for the very same reasons why people often recommend that you don’t invest your 401(k) money in company stock. When you invest your 401(k) in your own company, you run the risk of being hit with a double whammy if a market downturn affects your company. You don’t want your long term retirement assets pegged to your job, right? While the reverse may still hold true, if things go well then they go doubly well for you, it’s a risk that simply isn’t worth it in the opinion of most financial advisers.

Diversify Everywhere

Let’s say that you really do know an industry inside and out, that’s still only one industry. While Lynch’s advice wasn’t that you should put 100% of your investments into any one thing, it could be misunderstood. If you’re supposed to invest in what you know, shouldn’t you invest it all in at least that industry? Or that one country? I live in the United States, I “know” the United States, does that mean I should invest in domestic markets only? Probably not.

Even Those Who Know, Don’t

In reading Full of Bull, I saw how weak industry analysts were at predicting the trends in the industries they were covering. They spend their entire days analyzing industries, far more than what you would do if you worked in that industry, yet they were unable to pick the winners from the losers with any consistency. While part of the reason was because they had to play the marketing game, the reality is that the market is more of a random walk than an orderly march. Even those who devote their entire careers to tracking specific industries aren’t good at picking the winners.

I know I took a good statement and twisted every which way but I think it’s valid. Don’t invest with what you know, invest in fund who are led by people who know a lot and who invest in a lot of things. Or buy an index fund.

The key to a successful investment plan is to pick one that fits your personal style. If you’re always busy and simply can’t find the time to pay attention to your investments, you need to pick a style that matches your life. There’s no sense adjusting your life to your investments, it should be the other way around. It’s difficult to pigeonhole anyone into one particular bucket but find the various suggestions in each grouping to see how best to use them to match your life.

The Novice

Everyone starts as a novice, there’s absolutely no shame in being a beginner when it comes to the stock market. In fact, it’s probably better that you’re a beginner. It was the experts that got us into the whole sub-prime mortgage mess. Until they closed their doors, the halls of Bear Stearns was full of experts. That being said, if you’re a novice when it comes to the stock market, put your money into a high yield savings account and start playing with a “play portfolio” at one of the finance sites. While you’re learning, your savings will still earn a nice interest rate.

When I was learning, I used Yahoo! Finance and a tool over at The Motley Fool (if you’re a novice, The Motley Fool is a great place to learn more about the markets). You can use one of any number of play portfolios to hone your skills and get used to the stock market (without the pesky “losing money” part).

The Regular Joe (or Jane)

The Regular Joe is someone who likes to check up on stocks every once in a while (whether that’s once a day, once a week, or once a year) and keep up to date on the financial news. He or she has the time and inclination to read the news but simply isn’t terribly interested in everything that’s going on in the financial word. The solution? Try a “Lazy Portfolio.”

A lazy portfolios are buy-and-hold portfolios that consist of low-cost & no-load index funds. They are the bane of Wall Street and brokers hate them. They are created by financial experts and they perform quite well. Here are a few of the cooler sounding ones:

• Couch Potato: 50% Vanguard 500 Index & 50% Vanguard Total Bond Fund Index
• Sophisticated Couch Potato: 75% Vanguard 500 Index & 25% Vanguard Total Bond Fund Index
• Margarita: “One part total stock index, one part international stock index and one part inflation-protected Treasury securities.” (if you went Vanguard, that’d be 33% Total Stock Market Index fund, 33% Total International Stock Index fund, and 33% Inflation-Protected Securities Fund)
• Coffeehouse: 40% Intermediate Bond Index, 10% in each of Total Bond Index, S&P 500 Index Fund, Large-Cap Value Fund, Small-Cap Fund, Small-Cap Value Fund, International Fund, and a REIT index fund.
• No-Brainer: 25% in an S&P 500 Index Fund, Small-Cap Fund, European Stock Fund and a Total Bond Market Fund.

There are plenty of other options out there, and you don’t have to go with Vanguard, but those should get you started.

The Gambler

Everyone has a bit of gamble in them, some have more than others. I used to play quite a bit of online poker and blackjack in college, so I know that feeling. I know that rush of seeing good things happen and the despair when bad things happen (all too well), so I’m familiar with that mentality. I don’t gamble much anymore but it’s easy for one to fall into the trap of playing a little too much with the investment portfolio. So many of the same features of the stock market mimic the casino. Your money isn’t “real” money, it’s just numbers on a screen. Stock prices can jump and fall so quickly (even more quickly once you start talking options and derivatives) that it can give you that rush. (I wouldn’t recommend for gambling addicts!)

The solution is to go “Regular Joe” (i.e. Lazy) on 90% of your portfolio and allow yourself to “play” with the remaining 10% (any safe percentage, or absolute number, will do). With the 10% you can put it on individual stocks, experiment with options or futures or even foreign exchange, and feed desire for excitement.

The Compulsive Ticker Checker

When I first started working, I checked Yahoo! Finance every half hour while I was at work. I had some individual stocks in my Roth IRA and I was checking them every few minutes just to see what was going on. I did it because I didn’t really have much else to do at the time and it was just a way for me to read up on news, check to see if anything crazy was happening, and otherwise just kill time. The real solution to a compulsive ticker checker, if you want to reduce risk and still maintain market returns, is to select broad market index funds and add them to your online portfolio tracker. You’ll have plenty of information in those index fund news articles to keep you busy all day. Or get a hobby that isn’t investment related!

The Overworked

If you’re the type of person who wishes there were twenty-eight hours in a day, then you know that the reason your investments are being neglected is because you simply have too much on your plate. Rather than adjust your life’s priorities so you can invest properly, you should adjust your investments to match your life’s priorities. If you’re way too busy to look at your investments, even just once a year, then go with entirely lifecycle or target retirement funds. They are simply mutual funds comprised of other mutual funds, designed for a specific retirement date in mind. They handle all the allocations, all the re-balancing, and all the headache you simply don’t have the time to do yourself. They are also very affordable so you aren’t paying out the nose for someone to manage your investments.

Selecting the right style is crucial to ensuring long term success. If you’re a gambler (or have the itch of a gambler) and try to stick with a portfolio that doesn’t let you satisfy your desire for risk, you’ll end up making bad decisions somewhere once those bottled emotions get uncorked. If you’re overworked and don’t stick with something simple, things will fall through the cracks and your assets will suffer.

Which type(s) are you?

(photo: spencereholtaway)

Ever heard of the Margarita portfolio? How about the Couch Potato portfolio? Or the No-Brainer portfolio? No?

They’re all Lazy Portfolios.

A Lazy Portfolio is one that you can just set it and forget it and relies on low cost index funds or ETFs. There’s nothing particularly special about any Lazy Portfolio, besides their use of low cost index funds, and one isn’t necessarily better than another in all economic scenarios. As with any investing strategy, there are pros and cons. The pros, that it’s simple and you make few decisions, results in cons in that you may become complacent and ignorant of your investment decisions. It’s better to keep it simple and well understood than to make it complex and obfuscated. I’d rather make a choice that turned out wrong than make a decision I didn’t understand.

How They Perform

Paul Farrell of MarketWatch tracks eight Lazy Portfolios each year and in 2008, they have extended their winning streak of beating the S&P 500 for the sixth year (on a three-year and five-year basis). In other words, having a one of the eight Lazy Portfolios over the last six years has gotten you a better return than the stock market itself. (This year, three of the portolio’s got beat because they had a lot of REIT funds, but they are still besting the S&P over the last few years).

Here are the funds with the best names: (some of which weren’t featured in Paul Farrell’s wrapup)

Couch Potato Portfolio

This portfolio is the brainchild of Dallas Morning News columnist Scott Burns and is as simple as they come. All you need is 50% in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) and 50% in the Vanguard Total Bond Fund Index Fund (VBMFX). That’s it. You can go a little more aggressive with the variant Sophisticated Couch Potato Portfolio of 75% in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund and 25% in the Vanguard Total Bond Fund Index Fund.

Margaritaville Portfolio

This portfolio is also another one of Scott Burns’s creations and is the second simplest portfolio with equal parts of three funds: Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities (VIPSX), Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VGTSX), and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI).

No-Brainer Portfolio

Created by Dr. William Bernstein, a neurologist known for his work in modern portfolio theory and his book The Four Pillars of Investing, the No-Brainer Portfolio consists of four funds of equal weight: Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX), Vanguard Small Cap (NAESX) or (VTMSX), Vanguard Total International (VGTSX) or (VTMGX), and Vanguard Total Bond (VBMFX) or (VBISX). There is also a No-Brainer Coward’s Portfolio that includes 9 funds.

Coffeehouse Portfolio

This little gem was created by money manager Bill Schultheis, author of The Coffeehouse Investor: How to Build Wealth, Ignore Wall Street, and Get On With Your Life, created the Coffeehouse Portfolio that consists of seven funds:

• 40% in Vanguard Total Bond Index (VBMFX)
• 10% in Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX)
• 10% in Vanguard Value Index (VIVAX)
• 10% in Vanguard International Stock Index (VGTSX)
• 10% in Vanguard REIT Index (VGSIX)
• 10% in Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index (VISVX)
• 10% in Vanguard Small-Cap Index (NAESX)

Those are the cooler sounding ones but there are many many others out there!

(Photo: tanakawho)

Money Magazine recently released the only 7 investments you’ll ever need and, surprise surprise, my favorite firm, Vanguard, was listed first choice for five of the seven. Their founder, John Bogle, was a major proponent of index funds and it shows in their offering, as almost all of Money’s choices were low-expense ratio index funds.

Need another reason to have a mutual fund account at Vanguard? (No, Vanguard doesn’t sponsor this site!)

Blue-chip US-stock fund: Fidelity Spartan 500 Index (FSMKX) because it replicates the S&P 500 with an expense ratio of 0.10% (coincidentally, Vanguard’s version, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) is 50% more expensive with a ratio of 0.15%).

Blue-chip foreign-stock fund: Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VGTSX) because of its solid performance, beating 90% of its peers, and because it’s an index fund with an expense ratio of 0.27%. Another Vanguard fund, the Vanguard FTSE All World Ex-U.S. ETF (VEU), was listed as an alternative.

Small-company fund: T. Rowe Price New Horizons (PRNHX) is an actively managed fund, one of the few actively managed funds they selected, and is “one of the most efficient of the actively managed crowd.” Considering it is actively managed, an expense ratio of 0.8% is pretty good, about half the average.

Value fund: Oh look, another Vanguard fund - the Vanguard Value Index (VIVAX) and its 0.2% expense ratio and a record that trumps 78% of its peers. Value funds go after investments that appear overlooked or beaten down and try earn a little off those cigar butts and dividends, rather than looking for growth potential.

High-quality bond fund: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX) snags this category with a 0.2% expense ratio. Bonds are good to be the rock in your portfolio to give you some grounding as your other investments shoot up and crash down.

Inflation-protected bond fund: This last category was won by Vanguard’s Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (VIPSX) and it’s 0.2% expense ratio (Vanguard’s index funds are ridiculously efficient). “Among TIPS funds, Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities has several things going for it, including lower costs and better management than you would get if you assembled your own TIPS portfolio. While the fund returned 6.6% over the past five years, you shouldn’t expect it to make a pile of dough. Its job is to protect the money you already have.”

We live in a society where we are taught that we should try to be the best. Be #1 in your class, rise through the ranks of your company and be the best that you can be, be the fastest, smartest, or strongest, best best best. While I agree, we should always try to be the best, the point of investing isn’t to get the highest return, what most consider to be the best, but it is instead of get the highest return for what you’re willing to put into the process and what you’re willing to risk.

I used to read news articles, annual reports, and all those financial pieces on various companies, trying to glean bits of information and figuring out if I could get an edge over the market. I had the time to do that because I was in college, but now? Forget it, reading annual reports? Scouring balance sheets and income statements? No thanks.

So, that’s when mutual funds come into play. You have research without all the hard work of research. You also have diversification (hopefully they’re not diversifying in the general population’s understanding of diversification and actually diversifying and taking into account co-variance and blah blah) without the hard work of actually calculating anything out. The only downside of mutual funds is that very few exceed the market and all are more expensive than index funds.

So, that’s when I moved onto index funds and target retirement funds. The problem with index funds is the geographic and equity exposure. If you’re in an S&P 500 Index fund, you’re in all stocks and you’re in all USA. USA is a wonderful country, man I love it here, but our dollar is getting pummeled because of the trade imbalance and the nearly universal hatred of our President (I voted for him twice, thank you very much), and so you don’t want 100% national exposure. So I’m in target retirement fund to get out of all equity and I’m also in some emerging markets to give me some exposure to EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East).

The beauty of the index fund and target retirement funds is that they are cheap, they are easy, and they will give me at least the market average in returns every single time. The expense ratios are generally tiny for index funds and relatively low on the target retirement funds (not so on emerging markets). In terms of easy, they require no work on my part. I can do something else with that time, even if it is lounging around doing absolutely nothing and being worthless. As for the market average returns, well I think the index fund really speaks for itself on that one. So really, it’s three beauties at once and I love it.

What would you rather do, throw a ball with your kid or pore over balance sheets and income statements? Would you rather listen to a shareholder meeting or go shopping with your friends? How about enjoying a nice night on the town or checking the latest interest rates? Honestly, I’m pretty sure everyone out there would much rather throw a ball, shop, and enjoy a night out over the alternatives in all three cases and that’s what the driving idea behind advice like “just buy an index fund and do something else with your time.” Honestly, it’s really good advice and that’s why I’m tackling it in the latest edition of the Devil’s Advocate. (The Devil’s Advocate series is a series of posts that tries to argue the other side of “conventional wisdom” or common advice)

There are basically two main arguments against just blindly investing through index funds and they are:

1. Index funds are not without risk.
2. Even though you may not like it, you really should be spending time on research.

1. Index funds are not without risk.
Oftentimes people believe that by picking an index fund you’re going with a “safe” investment because you’ll get what the market returns, minus fees. You won’t beat it but you won’t lose to it, so it represents really the “best” that you can get with as little risk, and effort, as possible. Now, in the full specrum of investing options, to say that index funds are not risky would be wrong. With an index fund, you’re still talking about investing in stocks, which always comes with risks.

If you choose, say an S&P 500 index fund, you also run into the issue of country-specific risk - the United States. Depending on what you think your asset allocation should be, you should consider an international component because putting everything in the US is just as bad, from an allocation perspective, as putting it all in stocks or bonds or art or real estate. There are also other types of risk to consider, outside of stock market volatility and country-specific risk, and you don’t get protection from those by picking an index fund.

Even though you may not like it, you really should be spending time on research.

The part of the advice pundits give about index funds, where you get to spend no time on your investments and get to spend it on other things, doesn’t sit well with me. Certainly, if you want to spend absolutely zero time on one of the most important decisions in your life, your investments, then an index fund is definitely your best choice. However, should you be spending zero time on that in the first place? Probably not considering how much time you probably spend researching the other less financially important things in your life.

You might like it…
This reason doesn’t fit with the two main reasons why going with all index funds might be a bad idea but it’s definitely a “soft” reason why you should consider life outside of index funds. Part of the fun of investing is learning about companies, learning about industries, and learning about other countries and cultures. At the end of the day, you might read a lot of news articles or annual reports about Company X and decide that investing in them isn’t right for you right now, but you’ve still learned a tremendous amount about how Company X does business, how that industry does business, and it could pay dividends down the road. Along the way, you’ll also learn a lot about investing in general and it will help make you a more well-rounded person from both a financial and cultural perspective. Certainly, if investing is boring to you and you don’t ever want anything to do with an annual report or a balance sheet then slogging through them isn’t right for you.

What do you think? Are these reasons against index funds legit or was it a bunch of crap? Do you have any on your mind that trump these? Please let me know!