This Devil’s Advocate comes straight at you and assails the one last bastion of hope for a prosperous retirement – 401(k)s and IRAs. While it probably doesn’t feel that way with the volatility in the market, conventional wisdom says that the best way to save for retirement is tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)’s and IRAs. The power of having that money grow tax free trumps all other options.
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I quit investing in the stock market.
OK, just kidding, I didn’t really quit. I haven’t changed my retirement contributions in anyway (though I feel foolish every time I see a contribution go through, followed by the stock market falling even further). I left my retirement contributions alone because my time horizon gives me the the benefit of time, the one certain cure for this economic malaise.
However, we have stopped contributing to our taxable brokerage accounts simply because of how violent the market has become. Check out the CBOE volatility indices:
The volatility indices show the market’s expectation for volatility over the next thirty days and as you can see on their charts, they’re at all time highs. That’s why we’re not putting in any more money, we are going to wait until things calm down before we add back in. (That account was for savings on items we need beyond the next five years)
So, without the stock market, the next question is where should we go with our savings?
This is never a bad decision. With the economy the way it is, we should use any abundance we have left to start saving for potentially leaner months (or years) to come. If you listen to any experts, you might notice more and more are bolstering up their cash positions. As regular people, emergency funds (and CDs/High Yield Savings) are our cash positions and it’s never a bad idea to squirrel away a few nuts for the winter.
If you have any debt, whether it’s a 6% mortgage or a 20% credit card, paying it down is a smart move. Some would say that you should invest your money and take advantage of the leverage, but I think that’s a little too risky given the volatility of the market. The rewards you will reap by getting rid of your debt will far outweigh the potential gains you’ll earn in our current market. I’m not saying that the money you put into the market will be lost, maybe we have hit the bottom and its on its way up, but by paying down debt you free yourself in a way a few extra dollars in stock gains simply won’t. Also, when you pay down a debt, that rate of return is guaranteed.
There’s nothing wrong with taking the 3-5% APY of a certificate of deposit (the best cd rates are hitting 5% APY) or a high yield savings account (the best high yield savings account rates are near 4% APY). I think there is a stigma against taking these “safe” gains because we have it in our heads that the stock market can yield returns of 10%. The reality is that the 10% metric is one that’s been overplayed and so ingrained that people are looking at the volatility in the market today and wondering how that figure could possible be correct. It’s not. The market may have yielded gains of 10% since the beginning of time but as all mutual funds state – “past returns are not indicative of future performance.”
One thing is certain though – a certificate of deposit or high yield savings account will get you that yield. The worst case is that you get your money back (bank failure). Unlike money market accounts, CDs and savings accounts are FDIC insured and you’re protected from loss.
Take the safe bet, it’s OK!
Now is the perfect time to invest in yourself by taking some classes, buying some books, and otherwise augmenting your skills to make yourself a more attractive employee or prospective employee. Investing in yourself is one of the best things you can do with your money as knowledge is something that can stay with you for a very long time and there’s always something you can learn.
You don’t have to go as far as taking a class but if you’re in an industry where certifications, and the knowledge those certifications confirm, are important, go out and test for them. In certification heavy fields, many requisitions are filled by those certificates.
It’s often said that replacing a ten year old refrigerator can yield significant cost savings (some figures claim $100-$200 of savings [1] [2]). If you have a ten year old refrigerator, consider taking your investment money and replacing it. Let’s say you buy a $2000 fridge and it saves you $100 a year in energy costs – that’s a 5% return on your investment. Since that 5% isn’t taxed, that’s the same as a 6.67% return in the stock market if you’re in the 25% marginal tax bracket. 6.67% return, a new fridge, and being nicer to the environment isn’t too shabby, is it?
There are plenty of other money-savers you can find both in and outside of your home.
Do you have any suggestions on where people can invest nowadays?
When it comes to long term financial planning, my wife and I don’t really have one. We have some long term goals but we don’t have any dates pegged for those goals (which include starting a family, going back to school, buying a new home, etc.), which is about as useful as having no goals at all. That being said, it was about time we sat down and put pen to paper so we would stop committing the fourth deadly sin of personal finance – failing to plan.
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Six months ago, I became a professional blogger (or problogger, as the lingo goes) but the process of going professional was easily six months in the making (three years if you ask my wife).
I don’t know if it’s come through in my writing, or if you’ve read long enough to tease this out, but I’m a predominately conservative person with regard to risk (not political leanings). However, given the right opportunities, I’m willing to make aggressive moves that some would consider extremely risky. Resigning my full time position to pursue what is essentially a freelance writing gig ranks as extremely risky in my pantheon of risk. While you’re never 100% safe in your job, it’s certainly more stable than working for yourself. Being self-employed has its benefits, stability certainly isn’t one of them. This article will detail how I mitigated those risks, as best I could, and how I prepared to become a professional blogger.
This article is pretty long and might not be all that useful to many people, but several other bloggers and my friends have asked about how I prepared to become a freelancer/problogger so I thought I’d put it all together.
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The main point of Daniel Solin’s The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read is that your 401(k), or 403(b) or 457(b), and it’s employer match may not be a no-brainer investment because it could be filled with funds that fat on fees and poor on investment selections. His answer? It’s to model the Thrift Savings Plan, the retirement plan available to government employees that consists entirely of low-cost index funds (the expense ratio is around 0.03%), and use low cost index funds for your retirement options. Look inside your mutual fund options to find the ones that most closely model index funds and go with them.
I think The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read by Daniel Solin does a very good job of opening your eyes to the fee-ladened landscape of retirement investing. He takes specific aim at 401(k) because those “captive audience” type programs are more deceitful than you can imagine. Many companies use plan administrators that offer 401(k) plans for free because they know they can make a killing on the back end with expensive fund choices. If they really had the employee’s interests in mind, then they’d simply offer cheap index funds. In fact, some companies actually pay kickbacks to company HR departments to use them. The plan administrators pay companies for the opportunity to offer their fee fattened funds! It’s pretty ridiculous.
Unfortunately, this means that if you mainly invest in low cost index funds, you won’t get much value out of the first few sections of the book (it could spur you to rollover your 401(k) when the time comes!). The book continues to talk about other retirement investments such as IRAs, both Traditional and Roth, and annuities.
One characteristic I like about the book is that the chapters are short. Many are under three or four pages long, which is exactly how long it should take to explain many of the fundamentals about investing. For example, Chapter 14 is called Simple Investing Is Smart Investing is about three pages long and explains why a simple allocation of basic mutual and index funds will be sufficient for most. Chapter 22 is called “Why Fifteen Is Your Magic Number” and uses three pages to explain why you need to save 15% of your income if you want to expect to have a successful retirement. That, coupled with a applicable quote (usually from some important successful investor such as John Bogle), makes this book an easy read. There aren’t large chapters to digest, there aren’t huge concepts to wrap your head around, this book makes everything nice and simple.
Wow, June was a little rough. Net worth fell approximately 5.0% on account of two major reasons: quarterly estimated tax payments and retirement accounts. Outside of those two, which really consists of not much else, everything is progressing as expected. Neither income nor expenses, outside of the roof, had drastically changed. We don’t track our expenses as closely as we probably should but we have, at least qualitatively, gone out to eat less.
We’ve gone out to eat at restaurants less frequently for numerous reasons. First, gas prices have increased the cost of my wife’s commute, which is mitigated by my commute. Second, it’s far healthier to eat home on all accounts. You eat less and what you eat is healthier for you. Third, we need to learn how to cook better which only comes with practice. Eventually, whenever we have kids, eating out will no longer be an option (again, from the health and cost perspective) so it’s better to learn how to cook now than learn under the gun.
Estimated taxes are paid quarterly, for the most part, and so the month in which those payments come due will be times when my net worth will see an “artificial” drop. Technically, that’s not accurate, it’s the other months that are artificially inflated, but you know what I mean. This is one of those cases where understanding the underlying cause explains away any concerns I might have, at least with this reason. Retirement is a totally different issue.
Everyone knows that retirement accounts are long term. I know that when I log into my IRA’s, I can’t touch that money, unless I wish to pay a penalty, for another 40 years. However, it’s really difficult to look at the Dow drop 300+ points and not think about how one of our largest account balances is in an account pegged to that metric.
Retirement accounts took a 4.41% cut across the board, the largest single month change in my short adult life. I will do exactly nothing in response, though Todd Harrison, founder and CEO of Minyanville.com, who was a former trader at Galleon Group, Cramer Berkowitz, and Morgan Stanley, is in all cash. (there’s more to it but that’s the headline idea) A lot has happened in the last 10 years, there’s a lot more that will happen in the next 40.
The one thing I won’t be doing is adding to positions outside of the regularly scheduled retirement contributions. I think we already have enough invested in the stock market for our comfort level and unless we settle on our other long term investment goals (kids, college, home), we won’t be adding to our taxable brokerage account.
In May I listed three “action items,” I merely said it was looking towards the future, and I think it’s important to revisit them to see where we’re at. Think of it like my own little checklist of important things to do and where we’re at with them. I want to thank everyone who leaves comments with advice, suggestions, etc. because it definitely helps me out in many of these areas. I don’t have experience in a lot of these things and your insight, even if it’s what you did or what you’ve, is a tremendous help.
My retirement is forty years away and I have a portion of my brokerage account invested in a 2050 Target Retirement fund at Vanguard. The Target Retirement fund makes an excellent choice for me because it handles all the asset allocation and rebalancing issues without my interference, all with a target withdrawal date in mind. That’s when I got to thinking, why not utilize target retirement funds for shorter goals?
Let’s say you have kids that are planning on going to college. The natural choice is to go with a 529 plan or some other educationally advantaged account. After you open the account, what are you going to invest in? You could figure a safe allocation, given when you expect your child to go to college, and handle the finances or you could, if your account offered it, just go with a target retirement account. Simply buy the year closest to your target date, rounding down so you’re on the conservative side, and forget about it. It’s time-wise more efficient than managing it yourself and, if you go with the right firm, the fees will be reasonable.
This plan does have drawbacks. You often don’t much international exposure, which you may or may not want given our current economic environment. Many emerging markets are growing at breakneck speeds but the dollar is weakening, there’s plenty of uncertainty. You might want international exposure and a fund like the Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 has only 17.2% invested outside the United States, of which the lion’s share, 9.2%, is in Europe. Another risk is that you don’t have exposure to the asset class that has been growing the most recently, commodities (oil and gold, anyone?). Of course, we could be in a bubble right now or we could be seeing the start to something bigger – no one can see the future.
Either way, it’s an option on the table and one that I wanted to bring up to see if you all had any thoughts on the subject. Good idea with potential? Or just buying into the marketing hype of these lifecycle funds?
Last month was the return of these monthly net worth reviews and the first time, probably since when we bought our house (closing costs are brutal), that our net worth decreased across the month (taxes are brutal too). This month, we saw our net worth increase by a healthy 8.6% helped along by a mild recovery in the stock market (1.39% increase in retirement assets).
Last month I talked about three things in the future – roof replacement, water heater, and diversification of our investments. The roof is set to be replaced on June 16th, contingent on good weather, at a cost of $4,450. The roofing company offers a six month same as cash option but I think we’re going to put it on the Citi CashReturns card for the 1.2% cashback since interest rates are so low (it’s nearly a wash after taxes, so we figured for simplicity the credit card option was better). We knew the roof needed to be replaced so we were prepared, there won’t be any other financial impact (other than the -$4,450 to the bank account).
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| Intro APR | GoToRate | Annual Fee |
|---|---|---|
| 0%* | 10.99% - 20.99% (V)* | $0* |
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