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Your Take: Is The Recession Over?

Posted By Jim On 09/18/2009 @ 7:05 am In Your Take | 62 Comments

Earlier this week, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the recession was “very likely over” [3] but that the unemployment rate would likely still go up. There’s a lot of talk about a “jobless” recovery, that is a recovery in which new jobs aren’t created, with the unemployment rate not falling back to the normal 5% for at least another four years. Bernanke specifically said that the recession was likely over from a technical perspective, which is to say that we’ll probably still feel like a recession even if we don’t have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

So I wanted to know from you – do you think the recession is over? It’s one thing to look at “statistics” and declare victory, it’s another to look people in the eye and tell them that the recession is over.

Personally, I think that you can throw technical out the window because regular people don’t really care. Until people stop being afraid they’ll lose their jobs because of the economy, the recession isn’t going to be over. There have been a lot of positive things about this recession – Americans are repaying debt and saving more [4], frugality has made a resurgence, and there’s been a greater emphasis on emergency funds.

So… is the recession over?

(Photo: arvindgrover [5])


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[3] recession was “very likely over”: http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/sns-ap-us-bernanke,0,5184402.story

[4] repaying debt and saving more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=atjMg9ctSAMo

[5] arvindgrover: http://www.flickr.com/photos/arvindgrover/3395619783/sizes/s/

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